Match Analysis: Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-18
- Time: 5:11 PM UTC
- Location: Comerica Park
Game Overview
The Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians in a decisive AL Central matchup with playoff implications. Tigers' ace Tarik Skubal, a Cy Young candidate with a 2.26 ERA, faces Guardians' Tanner Bibee who has a 4.44 ERA this season. Detroit holds a lead in the division but has struggled recently, while Cleveland is looking to close the gap.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit Tigers have a better overall record (85-67) but have lost 7 of their last 11 games, signaling some recent regression. Cleveland Guardians are on a win streak and have closed the division gap to 4.5 games, showing strong motivation and form.
- The current series is competitive with Detroit holding a slight edge historically and favored by advanced statistical simulations with a 67% win probability for this game.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting starting pitchers or core lineup, giving both teams near full strength.
- Game played at Comerica Park favors home team slightly; weather conditions expected stable. No major external issues impacting player availability or performance.
- Tigers motivated to maintain division lead and secure playoff positioning; Guardians are motivated to cut the lead and gain momentum late in the season.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers -215, Cleveland Guardians +180 | Detroit Tigers | β β β β β 74% |
Spread | Detroit Tigers -1.5 -102, Cleveland Guardians +1.5 -118 | Detroit Tigers -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 +100, Under 7.5 -122 | Over 7.5 | β β β ββ 53% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 7.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 7.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Detroit Tigers moneyline
Predicted Score: Detroit Tigers 5, Cleveland Guardians 3