Match Analysis: Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-05
- Time: 10:40 PM UTC
- Location: Comerica Park, Detroit
Game Overview
The Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox in an AL Central matchup where Detroit is favored on the moneyline and run line. Tigers have a strong home record but recent inconsistency, while White Sox ride momentum from a rare 4-game road sweep and come as underdogs with promising pitching form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit Tigers hold an 81-60 record with a solid 45-27 home record but have lost 7 of their last 10 games. Chicago White Sox have a 53-88 overall record and 23-46 on the road but enter this game on a 5-game winning streak with notable pitching consistency from Shane Smith.
- Recent season games show alternation in wins with Tigers favored in moneyline odds historically, 16-7 record when moneyline favorite of at least -190. However, Chicago has pulled off wins as underdogs previously, but with a weaker overall win rate in such scenarios.
- No major injury reports affect starting pitchers Flaherty (Detroit) and Smith (Chicago). Both starters are expected to pitch, with Flaherty showing some recent struggles and Smith delivering quality starts.
- Game at Comerica Park favors Tigers with home advantage. Weather conditions and ballpark factors support moderate scoring. Tigers' offense may regress given their current luck metrics while White Sox pitching has been more consistent recently.
- Tigers lead AL Central and aim to consolidate playoff position despite recent form dips. White Sox, out of playoff contention, play motivated by confidence from streak and to disrupt a division rival.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers -190 | Detroit Tigers | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Detroit Tigers -1.5 105 | Detroit Tigers -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Under 8.5 -115 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Detroit Tigers moneyline win, covering the -1.5 run spread, and game scoring under 8.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Detroit Tigers 5 – Chicago White Sox 2