Match Analysis: Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 5:41 PM UTC
- Location: Comerica Park, Detroit
Game Overview
The Detroit Tigers (92-77) host the Atlanta Braves (78-90) in a late season MLB interleague matchup. The Tigers are fighting for playoff positioning while the Braves are playing mostly for pride. Detroit’s bullpen quality and home field advantage are key factors, with both starting pitchers coming off uneven seasons.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit Tigers have a strong 92-77 record showing good form, especially at home. The Braves have an underwhelming 78-90 record with inconsistency, particularly on the road. Tigers’ Casey Mize has been impressive recently after a strong comeback, while Braves’ Spencer Strider has been inconsistent this season.
- Limited recent H2H data on interleague matchups suggests Tigers have the edge at home. Market line movement favors Tigers moneyline indicating professional bettor confidence.
- No major injuries reported for either team affecting key starters or bullpen arms, indicating relatively full-strength lineups.
- Comerica Park is a modestly hitter-friendly venue with a run factor slightly above average (1.039), but total line movement is stable suggesting balanced scoring expectations.
- Tigers are motivated by playoff contention and home field advantage, whereas Braves are largely playing for final season results and player development.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers -120, Atlanta Braves +102 | Detroit Tigers | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Detroit Tigers -1.5 +145, Atlanta Braves +1.5 -205 | Detroit Tigers -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115 | Under 8.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Detroit Tigers at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Detroit Tigers moneyline, Detroit Tigers -1.5 run line, Under 8.5 total runs
Predicted Score: Detroit Tigers 5 – Atlanta Braves 3