Match Analysis: Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-30
- Time: 5:11 PM UTC
- Location: Detroit (home)
Game Overview
The Detroit Tigers face the Arizona Diamondbacks at home with Detroit favored on the moneyline and runline. The Tigers have stronger recent form and home advantage, while Arizona has been struggling on the road despite solid pitching from Nelson.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit Tigers hold a 63-46 record overall and 35-21 at home, currently on a three-game winning streak scoring 27 runs in the last three games. Arizona Diamondbacks sit at 51-57 overall and 25-29 on the road, struggling offensively in recent games.
- Season-long H2H is limited but Detroit has held a slight edge given their superior record and home field advantage. Arizona has not performed strongly as an underdog at Detroit.
- No significant injuries reported that would heavily impact starting pitchers or lineup for either team. Both starters are healthy: Chris Paddack (Tigers) and Ryne Nelson (Diamondbacks).
- Game played in Detroit, aiding the Tigers. Weather not listed as a major factor. Pitchers show mixed form: Nelson has been strong in recent starts with one earned run or fewer in three of last four, Paddack's form is less consistent.
- Detroit is fighting for playoff positioning with first place in the AL Central, bringing strong motivation. Arizona is lower in standings, with less momentum and recent offensive struggles.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Arizona Diamondbacks: +114, Detroit Tigers: -134 | Detroit Tigers | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 @ -182, Detroit Tigers: +1.5 @ +150 | Detroit Tigers -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 9: +100, Under 9: -122 | Under 9 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers 5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Detroit Tigers at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Detroit Tigers moneyline win
Predicted Score: Detroit Tigers 5 - 3 Arizona Diamondbacks
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