Match Analysis: Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-23
- Time: 7:11 PM UTC
- Location: Coors Field, Denver, Colorado
Game Overview
The St. Louis Cardinals (52-50) face the Colorado Rockies (25-76) at the hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. The Cardinals are favored on the moneyline and spread, with a notable expectation for a potent offensive game given the ballpark and recent scoring trends.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cardinals have a winning record (52-50) and average 4.52 runs per game, ranking 13th in MLB, while having a 4.17 ERA pitching staff. Colorado struggles significantly with a 25-76 record and a higher team ERA around 5.19 from probable starter Kyle Freeland, highlighting pitching weaknesses.
- In the current series, Cardinals won Game 1 and Rockies won Game 2. Historically, Cardinals hold the advantage, and in recent head-to-head at Coors Field, Cardinalsβ pitching and hitting balance out despite the elevation.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting key position players or pitchers relevant to this matchup.
- Coors Fieldβs altitude heavily favors hitters, inflating scoring totals. The Cardinalsβ starting pitcher Andre Pallante has a 4.71 ERA, which could be challenged by the Rockiesβ hitters in this environment.
- With Cardinals looking to improve above .500 and maintain their edge in the playoff race, motivation is high. Rockies have minimal playoff hope, potentially reducing competitive intensity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | COL +162, STL -194 | St. Louis Cardinals | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | COL +1.5 (+108), STL -1.5 (-130) | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 11 (-115), Under 11 (-105) | Over 11 runs | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 11 27% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 11 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis Cardinals moneyline win, Cardinals -1.5 spread, Over 11 total runs
Predicted Score: Cardinals 7 – Rockies 4