Match Analysis: Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-03
- Time: 7:11 PM UTC
- Location: Coors Field, Denver, Colorado
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Colorado Rockies at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Pirates starting Mitch Keller (4-10, 3.69 ERA) faces Rockies starter Bradley Blalock (1-2, 7.09 ERA), making his first career start versus Pittsburgh. The Pirates are favored on the moneyline and run line, but recent form and scoring trends suggest a tightly contested matchup with scoring slightly below the high posted total.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pirates hold a 47-64 record with solid pitching from Keller despite a recent loss to the Rockies. Rockies sit at 30-80 with poor overall pitching, but Blalock has improved recently. Coloradoβs offense benefits from Coors Fieldβs altitude, boosting run potential.
- Pirates won 8-5 in their last meeting. Keller is 2-1 lifetime against Rockies with a 0.00 ERA. Blalock has no prior against Pirates. Historically, games here have been high scoring but recent trends and starting pitchers imply a closer, lower scoring game.
- No major injuries reported impacting starting lineups or pitchers for either team as of game time.
- Coors Field notoriously inflates run totals due to altitude, but recent weather and pitching matchups may suppress scoring slightly today.
- Pirates look to rebound rapidly after a loss while aiming to maintain momentum ahead of a home stand. Rockies are underdogs with low playoff prospects and limited motivation outside home crowd support.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Colorado Rockies +130, Pittsburgh Pirates -154 | Pittsburgh Pirates | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Colorado Rockies +1.5 -120, Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 +100 | Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 11.5 +100, Under 11.5 -122 | Under 11.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 11.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 11.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates win; Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5; Over/Under: Under 11.5 runs
Predicted Score: Pirates 6, Rockies 4