Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-29
- Time: 4:06 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Game Overview
The St. Louis Cardinals (44-38) face off against the Cleveland Guardians (40-39) in a tightly contested interleague series. Both teams are coming off a recent matchup (Cardinals vs Guardians, June 28, 2025). The Cardinals arrive as slight moneyline favorites despite being on the road, reflecting their superior record and recent momentum. The Guardians aim to leverage home-field advantage and bounce back with strong pitching and key hitters like Jose Ramirez leading the offense[1][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Louis has a better overall record and is 6-4 over their last 10, while Cleveland is 5-5. The Cardinals have a stronger win rate as favorites (56.8%), while the Guardians have a 43.8% win rate as underdogs this season[2][3][5].
- Recent head-to-head is limited, but the previous dayβs game and the start of this series indicate competitive play. Both teams have shown close matchups with fluctuating favorites according to recent odds[1][3].
- No major injuries reported from recent box scores, but lineup changes may occur. Key players like Jose Ramirez (Guardians) and Willson Contreras (Cardinals) are active[1].
- Game is at Progressive Field, potentially benefiting the Guardiansβ pitching staff. Weather and crowd support are standard and unlikely to be decisive.
- The Cardinals are motivated to extend their lead in the NL Central, while the Guardians look to stay in the AL Central race. Both teams have playoff aspirations and are in must-win stretches[5].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians: +104, St. Louis Cardinals: -122 | St. Louis Cardinals (slight favorite) | Moderate |
| Spread | Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-162), St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+134) | Cardinals to cover the spread (if favored by less than 1.5 runs; markets vary) | Low (due to close matchups) |
| Over/under | Over: 8.5 (-105), Under: 8.5 (-115) | Over 8.5 runs | Moderate |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 8.5 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The game is highly competitive with an edge to the Cardinals due to superior recent performance and better win rates as favorites. But the Guardiansβ strong home record and key hitters keep them in contention. Expect a close game with late-inning drama.
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 6, Cleveland Guardians 5