Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-24
- Time: 5:11 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Game Overview
The Cleveland Guardians host the Baltimore Orioles in a mid-season MLB matchup where the Guardians are slight favorites at home, featuring a pitching duel between Logan Allen (CLE) and Charlie Morton (BAL).
Key Factors to Consider
- Guardians hold a 51-50 record, winning 4 of their last 5 home games and 6 of their last 7 day games against losing teams; Orioles are 44-57 with 6 losses in their last 7 games and a 10-game road losing streak versus AL Central teams.
- Charlie Morton has a strong personal record vs Guardians (3-1, 2.76 ERA in last 5 starts); Logan Allen is 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA lifetime vs Orioles. Guardians won the last encounter 3-2.
- No major injuries reported affecting key players; both teams likely close to full strength.
- Game played in Cleveland home stadium under usual day game conditions; Orioles face travel fatigue on a road trip; weather and park factors neutral.
- Guardians motivated to avoid a series sweep and maintain positive momentum; Orioles seek to rebound to avoid being swept and prepare for upcoming home series.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles: +100, Cleveland Guardians: -118 | Cleveland Guardians | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +162, Cleveland Guardians +1.5 -196 | Guardians -1.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
Over/under | Over 9 -110, Under 9 -110 | Over 9 | β β β ββ 67% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians 7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 9 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 9 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Guardians win. Spread: Guardians -1.5. Over/Under: Over 9 runs.
Predicted Score: Guardians 5 – Orioles 3