Match Analysis: Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-31
- Time: 4:11 PM UTC
- Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Game Overview
The Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals in an NL Central showdown. Both teams hover around .500 with similar records. Reds favored on moneyline and spread, while total runs set at 8.5. Key factors include starting pitching matchup with Reds' dominant pitcher versus struggling Cardinal starter Andre Pallante.
Key Factors to Consider
- Reds are 68-68 and have performed solidly at home with strong pitching led by Spencer Strider (dominant in August). Cardinals are 68-69, riding a 3-game win streak but their pitching staff overall has a higher ERA and WHIP. Cardinals offense features Willson Contreras hot in away games; however, Andre Pallante has been struggling with a 5.44 ERA and poor recent outings.
- Cardinals have had recent success against the Reds with hitters like Nolan Arenado recording hits in 14 of last 16 games vs Cincinnati. However, Reds have home advantage and better pitching matchup in this contest.
- Cardinals missing Alec Burleson (IL), which weakens their lineup. Reds have no major injuries reported affecting lineup or pitching.
- Great American Ball Park is a hitter-friendly park but Reds' pitching has limited long balls (tied 23rd in MLB for HR allowed). Weather conditions expected to be neutral without rain or wind extremes.
- Both teams fighting for playoff relevance with Cardinals just slightly behind in division. Reds motivated to avoid series sweep at home and continue strong pitching performances to close season.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds -142, St. Louis Cardinals +120 | Cincinnati Reds | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +146, St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 -176 | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -115, Under 8.5 -105 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cincinnati Reds moneyline win
Predicted Score: Reds 5 – Cardinals 3