Match Analysis: Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-13
- Time: 9:10 PM UTC
- Location: Great American Ball Park
Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Cincinnati Reds in an MLB matchup. Phillies are favored based on superior overall record and strong pitching matchup, while the Reds enter as slight underdogs, facing some uncertainty in their starter's health.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Phillies hold a 69-50 record with strong pitching led by Cristopher Sanchez (11-3, 2.36 ERA) and solid batting averages. The Reds are at 63-58, with some question marks about their starter Greene who is returning from injury after a long layoff.
- Historically competitive, but given current pitcher form, Phillies have an edge. Sanchez is effective against Reds, holding a career 3.86 ERA and 18 strikeouts in two starts.
- The Reds' starter Greene is returning from a groin injury and has not pitched since June, adding uncertainty to their chances. Phillies have no major injury concerns reported for their starter Sanchez or key hitters.
- The game takes place at the Reds' home park, which is traditionally hitter-friendly, possibly increasing run totals. Weather and other external conditions are standard with no noted impact.
- Phillies are motivated to maintain winning momentum and avoid consecutive losses, while Reds aim to tighten playoff contention and defend home turf.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati +115, Philadelphia -127 | Philadelphia Phillies | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Cincinnati Reds +1.5 -145, Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +125 | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 runs | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -112, Under 8.5 -108 | Over 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Phillies 6 - Cincinnati Reds 4
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