Match Analysis: Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-17
- Time: 5:41 PM UTC
- Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers (78-44) visit the Cincinnati Reds (64-60) in an interleague MLB matchup at the Great American Ball Park. Milwaukee enters this game on a strong winning streak and boasts a better overall record and offensive stats, while Cincinnati has struggled recently and faces recent bullpen issues. Both teams feature quality starting pitchers: Andrew Abbott for Cincinnati (8-3, 2.41 ERA) and Jose Quintana for Milwaukee (10-4, 3.44 ERA).
Key Factors to Consider
- The Brewers have a higher win percentage and better offensive metrics with a .260 batting average and .333 OBP, compared to the Reds' .247 batting average and .318 OBP. The Brewers pitching staff has a 3.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, slightly better than the Reds with a 3.84 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Cincinnati has lost 3 of their last 5 games, while Milwaukee is riding a winning streak since July 30.
- Recent series between these two saw Cincinnati lose the first two games with close scores (8-10 and 5-6 in extras). Historically, Quintana performs well against Cincinnati with a 2.71 ERA in prior matchups. Milwaukee has the momentum advantage.
- Cincinnati is dealing with bullpen concerns after blowing a save in the recent game. No major injuries directly noted for starting pitchers. Milwaukeeβs lineup is largely healthy with key players like Jackson Chourio active.
- The game is at Cincinnatiβs home park, which could benefit the Reds offense. Weather and other external conditions are not explicitly detailed, presumed normal for August in Cincinnati.
- Milwaukee, atop NL Central and on a long winning streak, is motivated to maintain pace and momentum. Cincinnati, sitting third in the division, needs a boost to stay competitive down the stretch.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds: -110, Milwaukee Brewers: -106 | Milwaukee Brewers | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Cincinnati Reds: 1.5 (-178), Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (146) | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 9.5 (100), Under: 9.5 (-122) | Under 9.5 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 9.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers are favored to win given their current form, superior record, and effective pitching matchup despite Cincinnati having home field advantage and a strong starter. Expect a close, competitive game decided late by bullpen and hitting execution.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5 – Cincinnati Reds 3