Match Analysis: Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-29
- Time: 11:11 PM UTC
- Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
Game Overview
The Los Angeles Dodgers (62-45) visit the Cincinnati Reds (56-51) in a late July MLB matchup featuring starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow for the Dodgers and Nick Lodolo for the Reds. The Dodgers are slight favorites on the moneyline with stronger recent pitching form, while the Reds have the home advantage and solid offensive contributions.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dodgers rank higher overall with a 62-45 record and boast a 4.24 ERA pitching staff, while the Reds sit at 56-51 with a 3.08 ERA from Lodolo. Offensively, Dodgers have a .254 batting average with a .330 OBP and .443 slugging, led by Ohtani and Freeman. Reds have slightly lower team averages but strong on-base percentages from key players.
- Dodgers have the edge historically and in recent head-to-head matchups, with Glasnow tending to outperform Lodolo. Glasnow is improving, posting 2.75 ERA with 46 strikeouts this season and finding good form recently, while Lodolo's home ERA is higher (4.17) and more hittable.
- No significant injuries reported for either side affecting starting pitchers or key offensive players.
- Game played at Great American Ball Park, which is moderately hitter-friendly. Weather conditions expected to be neutral with no major impact on gameplay.
- Dodgers, with stronger playoff positioning and upcoming tough fixtures, have high motivation to secure a win. Reds fighting to maintain positive momentum but slightly less urgent given current standing.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds: +126, Los Angeles Dodgers: -148 | Los Angeles Dodgers | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Cincinnati Reds +1.5: -132, Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5: +110 | Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 9: -118, Under 9: -104 | Over 9 runs | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 9 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 9 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Los Angeles Dodgers to win on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 spread, and the game to go over 9 runs.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 6 – Reds 4