Match Analysis: Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-19
- Time: 9:11 PM UTC
- Location: Rate Field, Chicago
Game Overview
The Chicago White Sox face the St. Louis Cardinals in a makeup game as part of a doubleheader after a rain postponement. The White Sox have struggled this season with a 23-50 record, while the Cardinals hold a solid 38-35 record. The game features a pitching matchup between Michael McGreevy (Cardinals) and Mike Vasil (White Sox). The Cardinals are favorites given their stronger season performance and better recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cardinals are 38-35 overall and have shown strong away performance (16-21), while the White Sox have struggled with a 23-50 overall record and poor home form (3-7). The Cardinals have a much better 10-game form (3-7 vs. 3-7 but with a recent 1-game winning streak compared to a 6-game losing streak for the White Sox).
- The teams have recently met with the Cardinals generally having the upper hand. The White Sox have dealt with game postponements and doubleheaders, which can affect stamina. The pitching matchup also features Erick Fedde, who switched teams in a trade from the White Sox to the Cardinals.
- The White Sox will have Tyler Gilbert joining the team as Adrian Houser goes on paternity leave, which may affect their pitching depth. Other injury news is limited but rain-related postponements may impact player readiness.
- The game will be played at Rate Field under sunny conditions with mild wind (14 km/h) and no precipitation expected. The doubleheader scheduling could impact player fatigue for both teams but especially for the home White Sox given their struggles.
- The Cardinals are motivated to maintain their positive standing in the NL Central and capitalize on White Sox weaknesses. The White Sox, struggling in the AL Central, will aim to end a losing streak and improve morale in front of a home crowd.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago White Sox: +140, St. Louis Cardinals: -166 | St. Louis Cardinals | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Chicago White Sox +1.5: -126, St. Louis Cardinals -1.5: +105 | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 8: -106, Under 8: -114 | Under 8 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The St. Louis Cardinals are favored to win this matchup based on superior season performance, stronger pitching stats, and better recent form. The White Sox may struggle to keep pace, especially given their poor home record and fatigue from scheduling.
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5, Chicago White Sox 3