Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-09
- Time: 1:08 AM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field
Game Overview
Game 4 of the NLDS, with the Milwaukee Brewers (97-65) seeking to avoid a Game 5 after failing to close the series on Wednesday night at Wrigley Field, where the Chicago Cubs (92-70) won Game 3 to stay alive. The Cubs are motivated by a strong 50-29 home record in the regular season and the opportunity to force a decisive Game 5 for the first time in franchise history when trailing 1-2 in a Division Series. The Brewers, meanwhile, are looking to advance and are aware that 37.1% of teams in their position have allowed the series to go to a Game 5, with only 21.4% completing a comeback[1].
Key Factors to Consider
- The Brewers posted a superior regular-season record, with key offensive contributors Brice Turang (.288/.359/.435, 18 HR, 81 RBI), Christian Yelich (.264/.343/.452, 29 HR, 103 RBI), and Sal Frelick (.288/.351/.405, 12 HR, 63 RBI)[2]. The Cubs countered with strong seasons from Pete Crow-Armstrong (.247/.287/.481, 31 HR, 95 RBI), Seiya Suzuki (.245/.326/.478, 32 HR, 103 RBI), and Michael Busch (.261/.343/.523, 34 HR, 90 RBI)[2]. Home-field advantage at Wrigley Field is a significant factorβthe Cubs were 50-29 at home[1].
- There is no direct head-to-head record in the 2025 postseason provided, but the Brewers enter as favorites according to the odds, likely due to their overall record and season-long performance. The Cubs have already shown resilience with a Game 3 win, and historical data shows they have a non-zero chance to complete a comeback, though it is unlikely[1].
- No specific injuries to either team's key players were reported in the available information.
- The Wrigley Field atmosphere could be a factorβhome crowds have historically propelled the Cubs in playoffs under pressure. Weather was not specified in the available data, but night games at Wrigley in October can be cold, potentially affecting play.
- The Cubs are fighting to avoid elimination and to extend the series, hoping for a rare MLB postseason comeback. The Brewers are eager to avoid a return trip to Milwaukee and close out the series as soon as possible[1].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home (Cubs): +104, Away (Brewers): -127 | Brewers to win, albeit narrowly | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | Cubs +1.5 (-170), Brewers -1.5 (+139) | Brewers to win by 1 run, but expect a close marginβlean towards Cubs +1.5 covering the spread | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 7 (-119), Under 7 (-102) | Lean under, as postseason games at Wrigley tend to be tighter, but not with high confidence | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers 18% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 7 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
While the Brewers are the overall better team and slight betting favorites, the Cubsβ strong home record, postseason momentum, and the unique pressures of a knockout game at Wrigley Field make this a close contest. The Brewers have a superior run differential and were more consistent throughout the season, but the Cubsβ home-field advantage and recent win add volatility. Expect a high-energy, closely fought game with the Brewers having a small edge, but not a dominant one.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4, Chicago Cubs 3