Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-06
- Time: 6:20 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
Game Overview
The Cincinnati Reds visit the Chicago Cubs for the final game of a three-game MLB series. The Cubs hold a better regular season record (65-48) compared to the Reds (60-54) and are playing at home. The Cubs are favored on the moneyline and run line, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs are second in the NL Central and have a solid pitching staff with a 3.92 ERA and strong offense led by Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Cubs starter Cade Horton has a 3.42 ERA over 73.2 innings. The Reds won the first two games in the series, showing recent dominance despite being the underdog.
- The Reds lead the series 2-0, including a close 3-2 and 5-1 victory. Chicago tied one game before losing late, indicating competitive matchups but Reds holding a recent series edge.
- No major injuries reported for either team impacting starters or key lineup contributors for this game.
- The game is played at Cubsβ home park Wrigley Field, which typically favors the home team slightly. Weather and other environmental factors appear neutral with no reported issues.
- The Cubs seek to avoid being swept at home and maintain position in the NL Central race. The Reds are motivated to complete a series sweep on the road, which would be a strong momentum boost.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs -131, Cincinnati Reds +119 | Chicago Cubs | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Chicago Cubs -1.5 +163, Cincinnati Reds +1.5 -187 | Cincinnati Reds +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 -110, Under 7.5 -110 | Under 7.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 4 – 3 Cincinnati Reds