Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-20
- Time: 6:20 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
Game Overview
Final game of a three-game MLB series at Wrigley Field between the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox aim to rebound after two losses, with Garrett Crochet starting, while the Cubs have won the first two games and start rookie Cade Horton.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cubs lead the series 2-0, boasting a strong offense ranked 4th in MLB with 5.32 runs per game and 143 home runs. Red Sox have a potent offense too, ranked 5th in MLB scoring 4.97 runs per game and featuring aggressive baserunning.
- Red Sox have struggled in the series so far losing two straight to Cubs, but have the pitching edge with Crochetβs 2.23 ERA against Cubs' Horton with a 4.45 ERA. This is Horton's first start versus Red Sox.
- No major injuries reported for either team impacting starting lineups or rotations significantly.
- Game at Wrigley Field favors Cubs as home team, but weather and conditions not noted as impactful. Red Sox will soon travel to Philadelphia after this series, so may be motivated to close strong.
- Cubs motivated to sweep series at home, Red Sox motivated to avoid sweep and regain momentum for upcoming interleague play.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox: -135, Chicago Cubs: +122 | Boston Red Sox | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | Boston Red Sox -1.5: +136, Chicago Cubs +1.5: -156 | Chicago Cubs +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 7: +100, Under 7: -120 | Under 7 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7 1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Boston Red Sox at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boston Red Sox moneyline win; Cubs +1.5 run line cover; Under 7 total runs
Predicted Score: Boston Red Sox 4 – Chicago Cubs 3