Match Analysis: Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-17
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox host the Miami Marlins in the final game of a three-game MLB series. Boston is favored, backed by strong home form and ace pitching, while Miami tries to avoid a sweep on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boston (68-56) has been strong at home and successful as favorites, winning close to 60% of such games and winning 10 of their last 12 starts with Garrett Crochet. Miami (58-65) struggles on the road and recently swept by Boston, with Janson Junk having a challenging August performance.
- Boston has dominated the current series and historically holds an advantage, especially with Crochet pitching effectively against the Marlins' lineup.
- No major injuries reported impacting starting pitchers or key hitters for both teams, Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet healthy and pitching well.
- Playing at Fenway Park favors the Red Sox, who have significant clutch hitting and home pitching stats. Weather and field conditions expected to be typical with no adverse impact.
- Boston seeks to complete a series sweep, boosting playoff momentum, while Miami plays with diminished motivation after recent losses and a tough schedule ahead.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox -255, Miami Marlins +210 | Boston Red Sox | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Boston Red Sox -1.5 -126, Miami Marlins +1.5 105 | Boston Red Sox -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox -8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boston Red Sox moneyline winner, cover the -1.5 spread, and the game to go under 8.5 total runs.
Predicted Score: Boston Red Sox 5, Miami Marlins 2