Match Analysis: Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-11
- Time: 5:06 PM UTC
- Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland
Game Overview
The Baltimore Orioles host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the final game of a three-game MLB series. The Orioles, currently 68-77, have won the first two games narrowly and are slight favorites with a home advantage. The Pirates, with a 64-82 record, are underdogs but will send Johan Oviedo to the mound against Baltimore's Cade Povich.
Key Factors to Consider
- Baltimore has been strong recently, winning seven of their last eight games against National League opponents, including victories over Dodgers and Padres. Their pitching staff holds a 4.60 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, with a .259 opponent batting average. Offensively, they have scored 625 runs, led by Jackson Holliday (17 HR, 54 RBI) and Gunnar Henderson (16 HR, 61 RBI). The Pirates have struggled offensively, having lost their last five games and scoring poorly in recent outings.
- Baltimore won the first two games of this series by close scores (3-2 and 2-1), indicating a tightly contested matchup. The Orioles have a favorable record against the Pirates recently, including covering the run line in 5 of their last 6 games against National League teams after playing the previous day.
- No significant injury information reported for either team impacting this game.
- The game is played at Camden Yards, a generally hitter-friendly venue. Weather and other external conditions were not reported as impacting factors.
- Baltimore aims to complete a series sweep at home, bolstered by recent winning momentum. The Pirates, struggling with a poor run and offense, look to spoil the Orioles' effort and improve their season record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles: -142, Pittsburgh Pirates: +120 | Baltimore Orioles to win | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | Baltimore Orioles -1.5: +138, Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5: -166 | Baltimore Orioles to cover -1.5 runs | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5: -122, Under 8.5: +100 | Under 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Baltimore Orioles are favored to win based on recent form, superior pitching match-up, home advantage, and psychological edge from leading the series. Expect a close, low-scoring game favoring the Orioles.
Predicted Score: Baltimore Orioles 4 – 2 Pittsburgh Pirates