Match Analysis: Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-20
- Time: 8:11 PM UTC
- Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
Game Overview
Arizona Diamondbacks (49-50) face St. Louis Cardinals (51-48) in a crucial MLB game where both teams hover near playoff contention. Arizona has a slight edge as home favorites, backed by strong recent home performance and a dominant previous 10-1 win versus the Cardinals. St. Louis, although slightly more productive offensively on the road, must overcome pitching challenges and recent away losses.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arizona is 5-5 in last 10 games and performs reliably at home, averaging over 3.5 runs per game against St. Louis. Cardinals have a balanced 51-48 season record, with a .252 batting average and 4.18 team ERA. Cardinalsβ offense is slightly more productive overall, but the pitching staffβs 4.94 ERA from starter Mikolas poses concerns.
- Recent head-to-heads favor Arizona, including a decisive 10-1 victory on July 20, 2025. Mikolas, the Cardinals' starter, has a career 3-2 record and a 2.97 ERA against Diamondbacks, but Merrill Kelly for Arizona has been more consistent with an 8-5 record and 3.34 ERA.
- No significant injury reports affect starting pitchers or key offensive players for either team heading into this matchup.
- Playing at Chase Field provides Arizona with home-field advantage, including familiar conditions such as pitcher-friendly park factors that can influence run environment.
- Both teams are motivated to solidify playoff positioning with similar records around .500, but Arizonaβs recent dominant performance over Cardinals adds confidence and drive.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | ARI: -142, STL: +120 | Arizona Diamondbacks | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | ARI -1.5 (+134), STL +1.5 (-162) | Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 (-122), Under 8.5 (+100) | Over 8.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Arizona Diamondbacks -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arizona Diamondbacks win on the moneyline, cover -1.5 spread, with the game going over 8.5 total runs.
Predicted Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 6 – St. Louis Cardinals 4