Match Analysis: Wisconsin Badgers vs Illinois Fighting Illini – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin
Game Overview
The Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3) visit the Wisconsin Badgers (3-7) for a Big Ten conference matchup at Camp Randall Stadium. Illinois enters as a strong favorite with superior season performance, especially offensively, compared to Wisconsinโs struggling 3-7 record and weak offensive output.
Key Factors to Consider
- Illinois has a 7-3 record, performing well against most opponents outside the top nationally ranked teams; they average a higher scoring offense than Wisconsin, who have scored more than 10 points only once in their last seven games. Wisconsin has a 3-7 record with poor offensive production and turnover issues.
- Recent meetings heavily favor Illinois, which also holds the clear advantage this season in all key statistical categories including yardage and scoring. Illinoisโs defense has been effective at limiting Wisconsinโs offense.
- No specific injury details provided in available data; no major injury concerns reported for either team.
- The game will be played at Wisconsin's home stadium, Camp Randall, with expected cool weather around 41ยฐF and calm wind; no rain expected. Public betting is slightly split but leans marginally toward Wisconsin on the spread, although Illinois remains the favorite overall.
- Illinois aims to secure a solid win to solidify their strong season record and improve standings. Wisconsin, having struggled all season, is motivated to perform with pride and upset the favored opponent at home to salvage a positive end to their season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini: -310, Wisconsin Badgers: +250 | Illinois Fighting Illini win | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini: -7.5 (-110), Wisconsin Badgers: +7.5 (-110) | Illinois Fighting Illini to cover -7.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 80% |
| Over/under | Over: 40.5 (-110), Under: 40.5 (-110) | Over 40.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 40.5 15% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 40.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Illinois Fighting Illini to win and cover the spread, with a preference for the game to go over 40.5 points based on offensive strengths and recent Wisconsin offensive struggles.
Predicted Score: Illinois Fighting Illini 24 – Wisconsin Badgers 12