Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Prediction
NCAAF in American Football
Match Analysis: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Game Overview
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-2) host the struggling Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-8) in a CUSA matchup. The Hilltoppers are heavy favorites, with a dominant offense and solid defense compared to Middle Tennessee's poor record and defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Western Kentucky averages 30.1 points per game (59th nationally) and allows 22.8 (51st), while Middle Tennessee scores 20.1 (121st) and allows 32 (111th). The Hilltoppers have covered the spread in 7 of 9 games, while Middle Tennessee has covered only 4 of 9.
- Recent trends show Western Kentucky has dominated Middle Tennessee, with the Blue Raiders losing 11 of their last 12 games overall and 14 of their last 16 on the road.
- No major injuries reported for either team.
- Game is played at Western Kentucky's home stadium with no weather concerns. The Hilltoppers are favored by 13.5 points, indicating a significant gap in perceived strength.
- Western Kentucky is fighting for a strong conference finish, while Middle Tennessee is likely playing for pride after a difficult season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -535, away: 400 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | home: -13.5 -115, away: 13.5 -105 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -13.5 | β β β β β 74% |
| Over/under | over: 55.5 -112, under: 55.5 -108 | Under 55.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 55.5 31% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 55.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Western Kentucky will win decisively, covering the spread and keeping the game under the total due to Middle Tennessee's offensive struggles.
Predicted Score: Western Kentucky 34, Middle Tennessee 18