Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Prediction
NCAAF in American Football
Match Analysis: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, Kentucky
Game Overview
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-2) host the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-8) in a Conference USA matchup. Western Kentucky enters as heavy favorites with a 13.5-point spread, reflecting their dominant position in the conference standings and superior offensive and defensive metrics. Middle Tennessee, struggling at 1-8, faces an uphill battle against a team that has been consistently effective against the spread this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Western Kentucky averages 30.1 points per game (59th nationally) and allows 22.8 points per game (51st defensively), demonstrating balanced offensive and defensive capabilities. Middle Tennessee lags significantly with 20.1 points per game (121st) and allows 32 points per game (111th defensively). Western Kentucky is 4-1 in their last five games and 4-1 against the spread over that span. Middle Tennessee has covered the spread four times in nine matchups this season but continues to struggle overall. Western Kentucky's rushing attack totals 1,097 yards on 283 attempts (3.88 YPC) with 13 touchdowns, while Middle Tennessee manages only 717 yards on 225 attempts (3.19 YPC) with 6 touchdowns.
- No specific head-to-head historical data is provided in the search results for this specific matchup. However, the overall statistical disparity suggests Western Kentucky should dominate the game.
- No injury information is available in the provided search results.
- The game is played at Western Kentucky's home field, where they maintain a 4-1 ATS record this season. Weather conditions show 71ยฐF with 0% rain probability and 15 mph wind, favorable for offensive play. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+.
- Western Kentucky aims to maintain their winning momentum and improve their bowl positioning with a dominant home victory. Middle Tennessee seeks to avoid further losing ground in conference play, though their 1-8 record suggests limited playoff aspirations.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee +400 / Western Kentucky -535 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Spread | Western Kentucky -13.5 (-115) / Middle Tennessee +13.5 (-105) | Western Kentucky -13.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 82% |
| Over/under | Over 55.5 (-112) / Under 55.5 (-108) | Under 55.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 55.5 6% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 55.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Western Kentucky will decisively defeat Middle Tennessee by leveraging superior offensive efficiency, stronger defensive capabilities, and home-field advantage. The Hilltoppers' consistent performance against the spread and dominant statistical advantages make them clear favorites in this matchup.
Predicted Score: Western Kentucky 34, Middle Tennessee 18