Match Analysis: Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 9:25 PM UTC
- Location: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Game Overview
The Detroit Lions enter as strong favorites with a 5-3 record, boasting a potent offense and solid recent form, while the Washington Commanders struggle at 3-6 with four consecutive losses. The game features the Lions favored by approximately 7.5 points with a total around 49.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Lions have shown consistent offensive output (239 PF) and a decent defense, while the Commanders have allowed significant points (236 PA) and are on a four-game losing streak. The Lions' road form (2-2) vs. Commanders home (2-2) both are moderate but favor Detroit.
- Recent playoff meeting saw Washington upset Detroit 45-31 as 8-point underdogs, but this season Detroit is in better form and favored by nearly a touchdown, shifting betting sentiment towards Lions.
- Washington faces key injuries at quarterback and defense impacting their performance, whereas Detroit appears healthier and more stable, enhancing the Lions' edge.
- The game is at Washington's home stadium, which historically favors the home team, but Detroit's solid offensive weapons and motivation appear to outweigh home-field advantage.
- Detroit looks motivated to assert NFC dominance following the previous upset loss to Washington, while Washington battles to halt a losing skid and regain confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions: -470, Washington Commanders: +360 | Detroit Lions | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Detroit Lions -7.5: -115, Washington Commanders +7.5: -105 | Detroit Lions -7.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 49.5: -108, Under 49.5: -112 | Over 49.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 49.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 49.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Detroit Lions to win straight up on the moneyline, cover the 7.5-point spread, and for the game to go over 49.5 points.
Predicted Score: Detroit Lions 30 - Washington Commanders 20
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