Match Analysis: Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs North Carolina Tar Heels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Game Overview
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-3) host North Carolina Tar Heels (4-5) in an ACC matchup where Wake Forest is favored by 6.5 points. The total points line is set at 38.5, reflecting a moderately low-scoring expectation.
Key Factors to Consider
- Wake Forest is currently 6-3 overall and 3-3 in ACC play, showing stronger recent form, especially at home. North Carolina is 4-5 overall and 2-3 in conference, demonstrating struggles on both sides of the ball. Wake Forest has a more consistent offense and defense and has covered the spread well in recent road games.
- Wake Forest and North Carolina have a competitive but favorable recent history for Wake Forest, who had a 67-68% win probability projected before the game. Historical matchups favor Wake Forest slightly, particularly at home.
- No significant injuries reported for either team that would notably affect this matchup according to available recent reports.
- The weather forecast predicts mild conditions (~67Β°F) with no rain or adverse weather to impact play. Wake Forest benefits from home-field advantage in Winston-Salem.
- Wake Forest is motivated to solidify their ACC standing and improve their record, whereas North Carolina, with a losing record, faces pressure but might have less momentum. Wake Forestβs recent slight form advantage and home environment add to their motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Wake Forest -220, North Carolina +184 | Wake Forest | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Wake Forest -6.5 (-105), North Carolina +6.5 (-115) | Wake Forest -6.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 38.5 -110, Under 38.5 -110 | Over 38.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 38.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 38.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to win straight up and cover the spread; expect a moderately low scoring game slightly over 38.5 points.
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 24 – North Carolina 14