Match Analysis: Virginia Cavaliers vs Stanford Cardinal – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Virginia
Game Overview
This ACC matchup features the Virginia Cavaliers (2-1) hosting the Stanford Cardinal (1-2). Virginia is a strong favorite, favored by approximately 16.5 points, reflecting their superior offensive and defensive stats and recent dominant performances. Stanford has shown struggles both overall and on the road, whereas Virginia has strong home performances and is coming off a convincing 55-16 win.
Key Factors to Consider
- Virginia averages 44.67 points per game offensively while allowing 19.33 points on defense, yielding a positive differential of +25.33. Stanford, by contrast, averages just 17.67 points scoring and allows 23.33 points defensively, with a negative differential of -5.67. Virginia is 2-1 SU and 0-1 ATS overall, while Stanford is 1-2 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road. Virginia has been more consistent ATS at home, going 4-2 in recent games, while Stanford struggles on the road with a 0-5 SU in last 5 away games.
- Recent direct matchups are limited but current odds and performance metrics indicate Virginia has dominance, reflected in their large spread favoritism. No recent games provide a split assessment; Virginia is viewed as superior by bookmakers.
- No specific injury updates were found for either team in the available data.
- The game is played at Scott Stadium, Virginiaโs home field, where Virginia shows better performance historically. Weather or other external conditions are not reported as significant factors influencing this game.
- Virginia comes off a dominant 55-16 win, likely boosting confidence and motivation. Stanford, with just one win, looks to prove themselves as underdogs on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers: -800, Stanford Cardinal: 550 | Virginia Cavaliers win | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers: -16.5 -110, Stanford Cardinal: +16.5 -110 | Stanford Cardinal +16.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 49.5 -110, Under: 49.5 -110 | Over 49.5 points | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 49.5 30% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 49.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Virginia is predicted to win decisively but may not cover the large spread margin due to Stanford's potential to put up points. The game is likely to go over the total points line set at 49.5.
Predicted Score: Virginia Cavaliers 31 – Stanford Cardinal 21