Match Analysis: Vanderbilt Commodores vs Utah State Aggies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 4:45 PM UTC
- Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Game Overview
The undefeated Vanderbilt Commodores (4-0) host the Utah State Aggies (3-1) in a matchup where Vanderbilt is a heavy favorite with a large spread and strong moneyline odds, reflecting their dominant performance and SEC strength.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vanderbilt is 4-0 with a dominant defense allowing only 2.6 yards per carry and a top-10 early down offensive success rate, coming off a 70-21 win. Utah State is 3-1 but ranks poorly in offensive pass play success (128th nationally) and struggles to generate pass rush.
- Limited recent H2H data available, but Vanderbiltβs SEC pedigree and undefeated record significantly outweigh Utah Stateβs Mountain West profile and recent results.
- No significant reported injuries for Vanderbilt or Utah State that materially affect the game's outcome.
- Game is at Vanderbiltβs home stadium with favorable weather conditions (76Β°F, no rain, light wind), boosting Vanderbiltβs home-field advantage.
- Vanderbilt aims to maintain their perfect start and momentum securing a statement win at home; Utah State seeks to upset but faces tough odds and talent gap.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Vanderbilt -2100, Utah State +1100 | Vanderbilt Moneyline | β β β β β 85% |
Spread | Vanderbilt -22.5 -110, Utah State +22.5 -110 | Vanderbilt -22.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | Over 59.5 -112, Under 59.5 -108 | Over 59.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores 920% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 59.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Vanderbilt Commodores at 920% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 83.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vanderbilt to win convincingly, covering the large spread, with a moderately high-scoring game leaning slightly over the total line.
Predicted Score: Vanderbilt 41, Utah State 18