Match Analysis: Vanderbilt Commodores vs Auburn Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 8, 2025
- Time: 9:01 PM UTC
- Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Game Overview
The No. 9 ranked Vanderbilt Commodores (7-2, 3-2 SEC) host the Auburn Tigers (4-5, 1-5 SEC) in a conference showdown at critical junctures for both programs. Vanderbilt aims to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive and finish strong, while Auburn, coming off a coaching change and a recent loss to Vandy, faces an uphill battle for bowl eligibility and ending the season with a winning record[2][3].
Key Factors to Consider
- Vanderbilt has outclassed Auburn on both sides of the ball this season, with a balanced offense and a defense allowing just over 20 points per game. Auburnβs offense, led by QB Jackson Arnold and RB Jeremiah Cobb, has potential but struggles in the SEC, dropping five of their last six[1]. Auburnβs defense has shown some pressure with 25 sacks and 9 INTs, but consistency remains an issue[1].
- Vanderbilt beat Auburn 10-3 earlier this season, underscoring a matchup edge[1].
- No significant injuries reported for either team in the latest available data.
- Auburn is in turmoil following the firing of head coach Hugh Freeze, leading to additional instability. Vanderbilt is riding the momentum of a strong season and home-field advantage[2].
- Vanderbilt is highly motivated to boost its Playoff resume and finish as a top-15 team. Auburn must win to avoid a second straight losing season, but Vandyβs strong home crowd and recent form create a psychological advantage[2].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt -238, Auburn +195 | Vanderbilt Commodores | β β β β β 83% |
| Spread | Vanderbilt -6 (-112), Auburn +6 (-108) | Vanderbilt Commodores -6 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | O/U 45.5, Over -110, Under -110 | Under 45.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 45.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Vanderbilt Commodores at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vanderbilt is the clear favorite, both statistically and situationally, to win and cover, though the total is a toss-up given Auburnβs defensive flashes.
Predicted Score: Vanderbilt Commodores 27 – Auburn Tigers 16