Match Analysis: UTSA Roadrunners vs Incarnate Word Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Alamodome
Game Overview
UTSA Roadrunners host the Incarnate Word Cardinals in a pivotal early-season matchup. UTSA enters struggling with a 0-2 start and difficulties covering big spreads, while Incarnate Word is a modest 1-1 but looking to upset on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- UTSA has historically been strong but is off to a poor start with 0-2 and has lost six of its last seven September games, recently failing to cover large spreads. Incarnate Word is 1-1 with an improving offense led by Richard Torres (QBs) and efficient rushing attack. UTSA's defense has been vulnerable, giving opponents ample yardage.
- Limited recent H2H data available, but UTSA historically dominates the matchup. However, recent form suggests the Cardinals could challenge the spread significantly.
- No major injuries reported for either team that would drastically alter team strengths.
- The game is played at the Alamodome, UTSA's home field, giving them a home crowd advantage. However, UTSA's poor September form and motivation could neutralize typical home edge.
- UTSA is motivated to stop its losing skid and avoid another poor start. Incarnate Word aims to build momentum and prove competitive against a favored opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -850, away: 570 | UTSA Roadrunners win moneyline | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | home: -108, away: -112 | Incarnate Word +17.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Under 61.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 61.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 61.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite UTSA’s heavy favoring in moneyline and spread odds, the sharp -17.5 spread is risky given their recent struggles against the spread and Incarnate Word’s moderate offensive production. Higher expected value lies in betting Incarnate Word +17.5 on the spread, while moneyline and totals offer less attractive EV due to price imbalance.
Predicted Score: UTSA 34 – Incarnate Word 20
