Match Analysis: UTSA Roadrunners vs Incarnate Word Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Game Overview
The UTSA Roadrunners will host the Incarnate Word Cardinals at the Alamodome on September 13, 2025. This is the second meeting between the two teams, with UTSA having won the previous encounter 35-7 in 2019. Both teams begin their 2025 campaigns with UTSA trailing 0-2, having lost to Texas A&M and Texas State, while Incarnate Word starts off strong with a 1-1 record including a loss to Nicholls and a win over Eastern Washington. UTSA is heavily favored in this matchup, reflecting dominance in team quality and home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- UTSA has struggled to start the season, dropping their first two games, including a home loss to Texas State. Incarnate Word has mixed results but showed potential with a recent victory. UTSAโs overall superior talent and FBS classification compared to UIW's FCS status suggest a strong advantage for the Roadrunners.
- Only one prior match exists where UTSA decisively beat Incarnate Word 35-7 at the Alamodome in 2019. This history favors UTSA heavily.
- No specific injury information is currently available for either team ahead of the game.
- The game is at the Alamodome, giving UTSA a significant home crowd advantage. Weather and other external issues are not expected to have any impact as it is an indoor stadium.
- UTSA will be highly motivated to rebound from two early losses on home turf. Incarnate Word aims to upset an FBS program, which would be a landmark win for their season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Incarnate Word Cardinals: +570, UTSA Roadrunners: -850 | UTSA Roadrunners to win | โ โ โ โ โ 92% |
| Spread | Incarnate Word Cardinals: +17.5 (-112), UTSA Roadrunners: -17.5 (-108) | UTSA Roadrunners to cover the -17.5 spread | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 61.5: -110, Under 61.5: -110 | Over 61.5 points total | โ โ โ โ โ 76% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 61.5 26% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 61.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering historical dominance, conference and division differences, home advantage, and public betting lines, UTSA is projected to win comfortably by a large margin.
Predicted Score: UTSA Roadrunners 42 – Incarnate Word Cardinals 17