Match Analysis: UTEP Miners vs UL Monroe Warhawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
Game Overview
The UTEP Miners (1-2) host the UL Monroe Warhawks (1-1) in an American football NCAA game at the Sun Bowl on September 20, 2025. Both teams seek their first FBS wins of the season after challenging non-conference schedules. Bookmakers favor UTEP as the spread and moneyline favorite with a moderately low total points line set near 47.5. The matchup highlights a relatively close contest with the Miners having a slight edge based on recent form and historical trends.
Key Factors to Consider
- UTEP is 1-2 overall with one ATS win this season and sits as the betting favorite; UL Monroe is 1-1 but 0-2 ATS, struggling to cover as underdog. Both teams show moderate offensive scoring capabilities with UTEP averaging higher scoring in projected models (about 32.8 points) compared to UL Monroe's weaker offensive projection (around 7.7 to 25 points range in predictions).
- Historical matchup data shows UTEP has generally been stronger, supported by their 6-1 ATS record in similar matchups. UL Monroe has not covered the spread as an underdog of 6.5 points or more this season, indicating difficulty against favored opponents at this line.
- No significant injury reports or player absences were noted in the available data, suggesting both teams will be close to full strength.
- The game is played at UTEP's home stadium, the Sun Bowl, giving them the home-field advantage. Weather and other external disruptions were not noted, implying normal playing conditions.
- Both teams are eager for their first FBS win of the season, with UTEP having slightly more pressure and momentum as the favorite and home team. UL Monroeโs motivation lies in overcoming their underdog status and breaking their ATS losing streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks: +210, UTEP Miners: -258 | UTEP Miners to win | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks: 6.5 -105, UTEP Miners: -6.5 -115 | UTEP Miners to cover -6.5 points | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 47.5 -110, Under: 47.5 -110 | Lean under 47.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UTEP Miners -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 47.5 -1% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: UTEP Miners at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UTEP Miners to win the game by covering the -6.5 spread with a final score prediction of 32-25 in their favor. The total score is expected to be near or slightly under the current 47.5 points line, although some models and ATS picks lean to the over.
Predicted Score: 32-25