Match Analysis: Utah State Aggies vs San Jose State Spartans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-17
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah
Game Overview
Utah State Aggies (3-3, 1-1 Mountain West) host San Jose State Spartans (2-4, 1-1 Mountain West) in a conference matchup. Utah State enters as a 4-point favorite, with the total set at 61.5. Both teams are coming off losses—Utah State fell to Hawai'i 44-26, while San Jose State lost to Wyoming 35-28.[1][3]
Key Factors to Consider
- Utah State has been marginally better this season, with a 3-3 record compared to San Jose State's 2-4. Both teams have shown offensive capability, but Utah State, especially at home, has been more consistent defensively. Recent losses for both suggest vulnerability, but the Aggies’ home field advantage is notable.
- San Jose State leads the all-time series 21-20-1, including a dominant 42-21 home win in the most recent meeting.[4] However, venue matters here, and Utah State is favored at home this time.
- No major injury news is available in the provided data, but always check for last-minute updates.
- The game is scheduled on a Friday night, likely increasing both crowd energy and potential for fatigue, though no weather issues are reported.
- Both teams are 1-1 in conference play and will be highly motivated to keep bowl eligibility hopes alive. Utah State, with a slight edge in overall record and playing at home, may have a psychological advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | SJSU +160, USU -192 | Utah State Aggies | ★★★☆☆ 67% |
Spread | SJSU +4 -112, USU -4 -108 | Utah State Aggies -4 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Over/under | Over 61.5 -112, Under 61.5 -108 | Under 61.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Utah State Aggies -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 61.5 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 61.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect a competitive, high-scoring Mountain West game with Utah State slightly favored by the odds and the data. The Aggies’ home field, combined with San Jose State’s recent defensive struggles, tips the scale in the hosts’ favor. The total is high but justified by both teams’ offensive tendencies.
Predicted Score: Utah State 34, San Jose State 28