Match Analysis: Utah State Aggies vs Nevada Wolf Pack – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Utah State Aggies Home Stadium
Game Overview
Utah State Aggies (4-4) face Nevada Wolf Pack (1-7) with Utah State as solid favorites based on recent performance, home advantage, and overall statistics in a Mountain West Conference matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Utah State has a stronger season record and home scoring average (38.75 points scored, 19.5 conceded) compared to Nevada's poor form (1-7 overall, 0-4 in conference). Utah State is more consistent offensively and defensively at home.
- Limited recent head-to-head data but Utah State leads with 2 home wins against Nevada's zero wins in those matches, indicating Utah State's advantage historically when playing at home.
- No significant reported injuries affecting key starters for either team at this time, maintaining lineups close to full strength.
- Home crowd support and travel fatigue for Nevada contribute to Utah State's advantage; Utah State playing in favorable conditions at their venue.
- Utah State seeks to improve their conference standing and bowl eligibility, providing higher motivation, while Nevada is struggling with a poor season and low morale.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -350, away: +280 | Utah State Aggies | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | home: -110, away: -110 | Utah State Aggies -9.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Under 52.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 52.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 52.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Utah State Aggies win on the moneyline and cover the spread with a moderately high-scoring game landing under the 52.5 total points.
Predicted Score: Utah State Aggies 31 – Nevada Wolf Pack 17