Match Analysis: UNLV Rebels vs New Mexico Lobos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Allegiant Stadium
Game Overview
UNLV Rebels host New Mexico Lobos in a Mountain West matchup where UNLV is favored by 4.5 points. UNLV boasts a strong offense but an unreliable defense, especially against the run. New Mexico has a capable offense with a strong running game and has shown resilience on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- UNLV is 6-1 overall but has struggled defensively, especially in stopping the run (ranked 113th in EPA/rush allowed), relying heavily on turnover margin. New Mexico is 5-3 with an effective offense ranking 24th in quality drive rate and 36th in points per quality drive. UNLV's defense issues and New Mexico's ability to run the ball closely match up.
- No detailed recent H2H data found, but UNLV has won all four games as moneyline favorites with similar odds this season, while New Mexico has kept games competitive and covered the spread recently against comparable opponents.
- No significant injury reports available that impact key offensive or defensive players for either team.
- The game is held at Allegiant Stadium, a neutral-venue style home for UNLV which may reduce typical home-field advantage. Weather and other conditions are neutral and indoors.
- UNLV is motivated to maintain strong form against conference opponents to secure better postseason positioning. New Mexico wants to continue proving their resilience and extend winning momentum on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos: +164, UNLV Rebels: -198 | UNLV Rebels | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos +4.5: -112, UNLV Rebels -4.5: -108 | New Mexico Lobos +4.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 61.5: -110, Under 61.5: -110 | Over 61.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 61.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 61.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New Mexico Lobos +4.5 (spread)
Predicted Score: UNLV Rebels 34 – New Mexico Lobos 30