Match Analysis: UNLV Rebels vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 3:30 AM UTC
- Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
The matchup between the UNLV Rebels and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is a key Mountain West Conference (MWC) regular season game occurring at Allegiant Stadium. UNLV holds an 8-2 overall record and a 4-2 conference record heading into this game, riding a 2-game winning streak, while Hawaii is 7-3 overall and also 4-2 in conference play. The Rebels have shown a strong offense with recent wins against competitive MWC opponents, and the Rainbow Warriors have been solid but slightly behind UNLV in performance this season. The game also features the defense of the famed Golden Pineapple Trophy as part of the Ninth Island Showdown rivalry.
Key Factors to Consider
- UNLV Rebels have been dominant offensively in recent games, example wins over Utah State (29-26 in 2OT), Colorado State (42-10), and Air Force (51-48) display their capacity for high-scoring outputs and resilience. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors have a 7-3 record with solid wins including a close victory over Stanford (23-20) but suffered heavy losses like against Arizona (40-6). Both teams have comparable Mountain West conference records (4-2). The Rebels' recent home performances suggest an offensive edge.
- The teams have a competitive head-to-head history, with this game being another installment of the regional rivalry known as the Ninth Island Showdown. The Golden Pineapple Trophy is at stake, which often intensifies intensity and motivation for both sides. No exact recent H2H win data is in available sources, but both teams have been closely matched in recent years.
- No specific injury reports or key player absences for either team have been disclosed in the available data sources close to the game date, indicating both teams potentially at full strength or with manageable injury situations.
- The game is played at Allegiant Stadium, a controlled indoor environment removing weather as a major factor. Home crowd advantage favors UNLV. Motivation is increased by the trophy rivalry and the gameโs implications for Mountain West standings and bowl considerations.
- UNLV aims to solidify a strong 9-2 record and improve conference standing, boosting bowl potential and home season success. Hawaii looks to keep pace in the Mountain West and defend their rivalry trophy. Both teams have strong incentives to win on a national televised platform (FS1).
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: 120, UNLV Rebels: -142 | UNLV Rebels | โ โ โ โ โ 74% |
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: 2.5 -102, UNLV Rebels: -2.5 -118 | UNLV Rebels to cover -2.5 | โ โ โ โโ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 64.5 -110, Under: 64.5 -110 | Over 64.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 64.5 9% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 64.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UNLV Rebels have the edge due to recent offensive performances, home advantage, and a slightly better record. Expect a close, high-scoring game with UNLV narrowly prevailing.
Predicted Score: UNLV Rebels 35 – Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 31