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Match Analysis: UMass Minutemen vs Bowling Green Falcons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Amherst
Game Overview
The Bowling Green Falcons (3-8) visit the UMass Minutemen (0-11) for a late November college football game. UMass comes off a winless season so far while Bowling Green has struggled but secured three wins. The game is expected to lean heavily towards Bowling Green, who show statistically stronger offensive and defensive efficiency in key metrics.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bowling Green sports a 3-8 record, showing moderate success offensively and defensively relative to UMass who is 0-11 with significant struggles. Bowling Green's yards per play (4.6) and points per play (0.264) are superior compared to UMass's 6.2 yards per play but very low scoring efficiency (0.140 points per play). UMass's 3rd and 4th down conversion rates are generally poor, and their turnover rates are high. Bowling Green's kickers have shown higher field goal conversion rates, reflecting better special teams performance.
- Historically, Bowling Green has dominated the few recent meetings with UMass, including victories with favorable ATS and under total points results. Past matchups indicate Bowling Green has been a solid favorite covering spreads as high as +19.5 and +27. Results have generally leaned towards low scoring games but this season's data suggests more points might be scored.
- Key injuries for UMass include QB Baron May (undisclosed), QB Drew Pyne (ankle), TE Reece Adkins, WR Kenyon Massey, RB Da'Marion Alberic, OL Zachary Franks, DL Joshua Nobles, and WR T.Y. Harding. Bowling Green's injury status is less detailed but no major injuries reported impacting their key starters.
- Weather in Amherst is clear with 46ยฐF and no rain forecasted, minimizing weather impact concerns. The game is played on a neutral home field for UMass, but crowd support might favor the home team despite their winless record. No significant external factors like travel disruptions are reported.
- UMass enters desperate to end a winless season streak and may display extra motivation to avoid finishing 0-12. Bowling Green looks to finish strong and salvage pride with a win after an underwhelming season. The motivation edge likely goes slightly to UMass owing to home advantage and urgency to secure a win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons: -110, UMass Minutemen: -110 | Bowling Green Falcons to win | โ โ โ โ โ 87% |
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons: -16.5 -110, UMass Minutemen: +16.5 -110 | Bowling Green Falcons -16.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 80% |
| Over/under | Over: -110, Under: -110 | Over the total points | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bowling Green is strongly favored to win by a large margin due to superior team performance, fewer injuries impacting key positions, and historic dominance. The predicted outcome is a decisive Bowling Green victory covering the spread of -16.5 points.
Predicted Score: Bowling Green Falcons 38 – UMass Minutemen 14