Match Analysis: UL Monroe Warhawks vs Troy Trojans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: JPS Field at Malone Stadium, Monroe, Louisiana
Game Overview
This Sun Belt Conference matchup features the Troy Trojans (4-2) traveling to face UL Monroe Warhawks (3-3) at Malone Stadium. Troy is currently favored on the moneyline and spread, reflecting their stronger recent form and statistical advantages.
Key Factors to Consider
- Troy is on a three-game winning streak with a 4-2 record ATS, showing consistent ability to close out games. UL Monroe has struggled recently with two straight losses and a 2-4 ATS record, indicating inconsistency, especially on defense which has allowed significant rushing yards.
- Historically, Troy leads the series 9-8 but UL Monroe won the last meeting narrowly 13-9. Troy tends to perform better on the road in this matchup and has generally controlled scoring margins.
- No notable key injuries reported for either team impacting the starting lineup or major contributors, allowing both teams to field near full strength.
- Game played in Monroe gives UL Monroe home-field advantage, but Troy's momentum and stronger defense offset this. Weather and other external factors are typical for October in Louisiana with no significant predicted impact.
- Troy is 2-0 in conference play and motivated to maintain strong position; UL Monroe seeks to rebound from recent losses, but momentum heavily favors Troy.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Troy Trojans: -225, UL Monroe Warhawks: +185 | Troy Trojans | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Troy Trojans: -6 -108, UL Monroe Warhawks: +6 -112 | Troy Trojans -6 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over: 46.5 -115, Under: 46.5 -105 | Over 46.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Troy Trojans 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 46.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 46.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Troy Trojans to win on the moneyline, cover the spread, and the game to go over the total points line.
Predicted Score: Troy Trojans 28 – UL Monroe Warhawks 20