Match Analysis: UL Monroe Warhawks vs South Alabama Jaguars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: JPS Field at Malone Stadium, Monroe, Louisiana
Game Overview
Sun Belt Conference matchup between two struggling programs. South Alabama (2-7, 1-4 Sun Belt) travels to face UL Monroe (3-6, 1-4 Sun Belt) in a critical divisional contest. Both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility in what appears to be an evenly-matched low-scoring affair. The Jaguars are favored despite inferior overall records, suggesting sharps view South Alabama as the more competent program.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Alabama averages 33.8 points per game overall with concerning home/away splits (33.8 home, 33.8 away), indicating inconsistent offensive execution. UL Monroe operates at similar offensive levels. South Alabama's ATS record stands at 3-6 overall (2-2 away), while UL Monroe sits at comparable struggle levels. Both teams rank in the lower third of FBS for efficiency metrics. South Alabama has the marginally superior defensive profile based on total yardage allowed.
- Limited recent head-to-head data provided in search results. Both teams are in the same conference (Sun Belt) with similar win-loss records, suggesting comparable talent levels. The spread of -4.5 reflects South Alabama's slight organizational edge rather than dominant performance metrics.
- No injury reports available from provided search results. This represents a significant analytical gap, as key player absences could dramatically shift game dynamics. Proceed with standard caution regarding unknown injury status.
- Weather conditions favorable at 79Β°F with 0% rain probability, eliminating weather as a confounding variable. Home field advantage for UL Monroe provides moderate boost (typically 2-3 points in FBS). Game time at 3:30 PM EST presents no significant circadian disadvantage. Late-season November timing may slightly favor more disciplined programs.
- Both teams are 2+ games below .500 and fighting for bowl eligibility. South Alabama's road record (2-2 ATS away) slightly exceeds home performance, suggesting potential desperation motivation. UL Monroe defends home turf with 5-4 over/under record at home, indicating slightly higher-scoring tendency at their stadium. Neither team has significant tournament implications, moderating motivation differentials.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama -205 | UL Monroe +170 | South Alabama Jaguars | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | South Alabama -4.5 (-112) | UL Monroe +4.5 (-108) | South Alabama -4.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
| Over/under | Over 49.5 (-105) | Under 49.5 (-115) | Under 49.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 49.5 35% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 39.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
South Alabama will win a low-scoring, grind-it-out battle. The Jaguars' defensive profile combined with away-game composure suggests they'll execute better in the critical moments. Expect a 24-17 type final score reflecting both teams' offensive limitations.
Predicted Score: South Alabama 24, UL Monroe 17