Match Analysis: UL Monroe Warhawks vs South Alabama Jaguars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: JPS Field at Malone Stadium, Monroe, LA
Game Overview
South Alabama Jaguars (2-7) travel to face UL Monroe Warhawks (3-6) in a Sun Belt Conference matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with South Alabama having a slight edge in record and recent form. The game is scheduled for Saturday night under clear conditions, with kickoff at 8:30 PM local time. The betting market favors South Alabama as a moderate favorite, with the spread set at -4.5 and the total points line at 49.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Alabama has shown a tendency to cover the spread more consistently than UL Monroe, with a 6-3 record when betting the over and a better overall ATS record. UL Monroe has struggled defensively, allowing more points and yards, and has a 2-6 ATS record this season. South Alabama has a stronger rushing attack, averaging 1743 yards compared to UL Monroe's 1518, and has scored 17 rushing touchdowns to UL Monroe's 8. UL Monroe has a slight edge in yards per carry (4.63 vs 4.49), but South Alabama has been more efficient in converting opportunities.
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup, but both teams have similar records and conference standings, suggesting a competitive game.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either team, indicating both squads should be at full strength for this contest.
- The game will be played at Malone Stadium, which is UL Monroe's home field. However, the weather is expected to be favorable, with no rain and mild temperatures, minimizing any environmental impact on play.
- Both teams are fighting to improve their records and potentially secure a better bowl eligibility position. South Alabama, as the favorite, may have added motivation to close the season strong, while UL Monroe will look to upset the Jaguars and boost their own postseason hopes.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars: -205, UL Monroe Warhawks: 170 | South Alabama Jaguars | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars: -4.5 -112, UL Monroe Warhawks: 4.5 -108 | South Alabama Jaguars | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 49.5 -105, Under: 49.5 -115 | Over | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 49.5 7% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 49.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
South Alabama is favored to win this matchup, with a strong rushing attack and better overall performance this season. UL Monroe has shown some offensive capability but has struggled defensively. The game is expected to be close, with South Alabama likely to cover the spread and the total points likely to go over the line.
Predicted Score: South Alabama 28, UL Monroe 24