Match Analysis: UL Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: JPS Field at Malone Stadium, Monroe, Louisiana
Game Overview
The UL Monroe Warhawks (2-1) host the Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-3) in a Sun Belt conference matchup. UL Monroe holds a slight advantage at home, with better recent form and stronger September home performances. Arkansas State struggles on the road, especially in September, but has a history of close meetings with UL Monroe.
Key Factors to Consider
- UL Monroe has a 2-1 record with a recent win over UTEP (31-25), showing resilience at home. Arkansas State is 1-3 with a recent loss to Kennesaw State. UL Monroe has won 7 of their last 8 September home games, while Arkansas State has struggled on the road, losing 10 of their last 11 September road games.
- Arkansas State has won 6 of the last 8 meetings against Louisiana teams, though UL Monroeβs home advantage and current form should balance this. Previous matchups have been competitive and relatively close.
- No significant injury reports are available that would strongly impact either teamβs lineup going into this game, indicating mostly full strength squads.
- Weather is expected to be clear with a temperature around 82Β°F and no rain, minimizing external impact on gameplay. Home crowd advantage should favor UL Monroe significantly.
- UL Monroe is motivated to improve their conference standing and capitalize on strong home form. Arkansas State, with a struggling record, is motivated to avoid further losses and keep the game within reach.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Arkansas State: -108, UL Monroe: -112 | UL Monroe | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Arkansas State: -115, UL Monroe: -105 | UL Monroe -1.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Over/under | Over: -112, Under: -108 | Over 53.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks 10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 53.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: UL Monroe Warhawks at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UL Monroe to win straight up on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 spread, and the total score to go over 53.5 points.
Predicted Score: UL Monroe 30 – Arkansas State 24