Match Analysis: UCLA Bruins vs Penn State Nittany Lions – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-04
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena
Game Overview
This Big Ten matchup features the No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1) visiting the struggling UCLA Bruins (0-4). Penn State is heavily favored in this game, with dominant recent form and a strong offense against a UCLA team winless so far this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Penn State enters this game with a strong 3-1 record, showing consistent dominance on both offense and defense. UCLA is 0-4, struggling to keep pace and has only covered the spread once in its last five games.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but Penn State's overall superiority and recent trends strongly favor them. UCLA has not displayed competitiveness against top-tier Big Ten opponents recently.
- No major injury reports have significantly affected Penn Stateβs starting roster; UCLAβs injury situation is not reported as critical but depth concerns remain.
- The game is at the Rose Bowl with mild weather (74Β°F, no rain, light wind), neutral conditions that favor no team. Public betting heavily leans toward UCLA on the moneyline but Penn State continues to dominate betting markets.
- Penn State, ranked No. 7, looks to maintain momentum and avoid a bad conference loss. UCLA is desperate for a first win, but morale and performance issues suggest little chance to spoil Penn Stateβs run.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions: -4000, UCLA Bruins: +1500 | Penn State Nittany Lions | β β β β β 95% |
Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -24.5: -115, UCLA Bruins +24.5: -105 | Penn State Nittany Lions -24.5 | β β β β β 90% |
Over/under | Over 50.5: -106, Under 50.5: -114 | Under 50.5 | β β β β β 80% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 50.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Penn State to win moneyline, cover the 24.5-point spread, and the total to go under 50.5 points.
Predicted Score: Penn State 35 – UCLA 7