Match Analysis: Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, Oklahoma
Game Overview
Tulane Green Wave (3-1) visits Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-2) with Tulane favored by 15.5 points. Both teams have shown inconsistent recent performances with Tulsa splitting last few games and Tulane coming off a heavy loss. The matchup features a large spread with moderate total points line around 51.5-52.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tulane holds a better overall record (3-1) than Tulsa (2-2), but recently suffered a 45-10 loss against a strong Ole Miss team. Tulsa won their latest game against Oklahoma State 19-12, showing defensive resilience. Tulsa has gone 2-2 ATS in recent games and struggles to score, while Tulane is more consistent offensively but vulnerable defensively.
- Tulane has dominated recent matchups, going 5-2 SU and 16-2 SU in the last 18 games against Tulsa. Tulane also holds a 5-14 ATS deficit but clearly superior in outright wins historically.
- No major injuries reported for either team that drastically impact key positions, so both sides expected to field near full-strength squads.
- Game is played at Tulsa, which typically grants the home team some advantage; however, Tulsa’s inconsistency at home and Tulane’s superior form in recent meetings reduce this edge.
- Tulane aims to bounce back from a tough loss and solidify their season, while Tulsa wants to leverage home field to even their record. Both teams motivated, but Tulane’s better season trajectory adds confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tulane: -700, Tulsa: +500 | Tulane Green Wave | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Tulane: -15.5 -108, Tulsa: +15.5 -112 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +15.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 51.5 -115, Under: 51.5 -105 | Under 51.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane -20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 51.5 21% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Betting on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane +15.5 spread provides the highest expected value given Tulane’s large spread favor and Tulsa's ability to keep games close recently. Moneyline on Tulane is too expensive and over/under leans to under due to Tulsa's strong defense and recent low scoring games.
Predicted Score: Tulane 28, Tulsa 16
