Match Analysis: Toledo Rockets vs Northern Illinois Huskies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-05
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio
Game Overview
The Toledo Rockets (4-4) host the Northern Illinois Huskies (2-6) in a Mid-American Conference matchup with Toledo as heavy favorites both on the moneyline and spread. Toledo boasts a top-tier pass defense, while Northern Illinois has struggled with a losing record and four consecutive road losses.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toledo has a strong defense, ranking 4th nationally in pass defense, while Northern Illinois also has a ranked passing defense (15th), but overall NIU's record is poor (2-6) compared to Toledoβs balanced 4-4. Toledo lost their last road game to Washington State 28-7 but have won four straight at home. Northern Illinois won their last game 21-7 at home versus Ball State but have struggled on the road.
- Historically, Toledo has dominated the matchup, winning 4 of the last 6 games including a recent 13-6 victory at Northern Illinoisβ stadium. This matchup weighs heavily in Toledoβs favor.
- No significant injuries reported for either team that would drastically affect the outcome or key player availability.
- Game played at Toledoβs Glass Bowl provides a home-field advantage. Weather factors are not specified but typically November in Ohio favors defensive, lower-scoring games.
- Toledo, at .500 and fighting for conference standing, carries higher motivation playing at home to maintain momentum, while Northern Illinois has a losing record and recent poor road form, potentially impacting morale.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toledo -720, Northern Illinois +520 | Toledo Rockets | β β β β β 87% |
| Spread | Toledo -14.5 (-115), Northern Illinois +14.5 (-105) | Toledo Rockets -14.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 42.5 -110, Under 42.5 -110 | Under 42.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 42.5 34% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 42.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toledo Rockets to win outright on the moneyline, cover the 14.5 point spread, and the game to go under 42.5 points.
Predicted Score: Toledo Rockets 28, Northern Illinois Huskies 13