Match Analysis: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma State Cowboys – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, Texas
Game Overview
No. 14 Texas Tech (6-1) hosts Oklahoma State (1-6) in a Big 12 Week 9 matchup. Texas Tech is one of the nation’s top offenses but coming off a rare loss, while Oklahoma State is struggling badly in conference play, winless in the Big 12 and on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas Tech averages 43.9 PPG (4th in FBS) and allows just 14.1 PPG (6th), with a dominant run defense (1st in FBS). Oklahoma State is averaging under 20 PPG and has lost every conference game by at least 18 points, failing to cover the spread in 6 of 7 games.
- Texas Tech won the last meeting 56-48 on the road. This year’s matchup is expected to be far less competitive given the teams’ trajectories.
- No major injury reports for either team affecting the spread. Lineups appear stable.
- Game is in Lubbock, where Texas Tech is undefeated and has covered big spreads routinely. Weather is clear, 69°F, no wind or rain expected—ideal for Texas Tech’s fast-paced offense.
- Texas Tech is looking to rebound from its first loss and stay in the Big 12 title race. Oklahoma State is playing for pride but has shown little sign of competitiveness in similar matchups.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Tech -38.5 (-105), Oklahoma State +38.5 (-115) | Texas Tech -38.5 | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 56.5 (-105), Under 56.5 (-115) | Under 56.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 56.5 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 56.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas Tech dominates in a lopsided home win, covering the largest spread in recent program history. Oklahoma State struggles to score against an elite defense, while the Red Raiders’ offense rolls up points against a porous Cowboys unit.
Predicted Score: Texas Tech 48, Oklahoma State 7