Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs UL Monroe Warhawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 22, 2025
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFCU Stadium, San Marcos, Texas
Game Overview
The Texas State Bobcats (4-6, 1-5 Sun Belt) host the UL Monroe Warhawks (3-7, 1-5 Sun Belt) in a Sun Belt Conference matchup. Texas State enters as heavy favorites, having recently snapped a losing streak with a win over Southern Miss, while UL Monroe continues to struggle offensively and defensively. Both teams are competing for bowl eligibility but remain near the bottom of their conference standings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas State has shown improvement recently, winning their last game 41-14 against Southern Miss after a period of offensive inconsistency. However, they have allowed 40+ points in four of their last five games, indicating persistent defensive vulnerabilities. UL Monroe has been significantly worse, scoring 14 or fewer points in four of their last five games while allowing 31+ points in three of their last four contests. Texas State's offensive capabilities significantly outpace UL Monroe's, creating a stark talent disparity.
- Texas State has dominated this matchup historically, winning four of its last five games against UL Monroe. Additionally, UL Monroe has lost all of its last 12 November games against non-AP-ranked teams, a troubling trend heading into this late-season contest.
- No specific injury information is available from the provided data for either team.
- Weather conditions at game time show 73ยฐF with 0% rain and minimal wind, providing neutral playing conditions. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+, and UL Monroe has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams, while the favorite has covered in six of UL Monroe's last seven games.
- Both teams are fighting near the bottom of the Sun Belt standings with limited bowl game prospects. Texas State's recent win provides momentum, while UL Monroe is desperate to snap their lengthy losing streak. However, Texas State's superior offensive execution and historical dominance in this matchup suggest stronger positioning.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas State -1100, UL Monroe +700 | Texas State Bobcats | โ โ โ โ โ 92% |
| Spread | Texas State -17.5 -112, UL Monroe +17.5 -108 | Texas State covers -17.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 58.5 -105, Under 58.5 -115 | Over 58.5 | โ โ โ โโ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 58.5 9% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 58.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas State Bobcats win decisively. The combination of Texas State's significantly superior offensive production, historical head-to-head advantage, and UL Monroe's persistent inability to score or defend creates a clear mismatch. Texas State's defense, while flawed, remains substantially better than UL Monroe's struggling unit. The Bobcats should control this game throughout and secure a comfortable victory.
Predicted Score: Texas State 35, UL Monroe 17