Match Analysis: Texas Longhorns vs Arkansas Razorbacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
Game Overview
The Texas Longhorns (7-3, ranked 17th) host the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-8) in a critical NCAAF matchup. Texas boasts the 15th-ranked scoring defense facing off against the 25th-ranked Arkansas scoring offense. The Longhorns are favored by 9.5 points with an over/under set at 58.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas features an elite defensive unit but has shown inconsistent and slow-paced offense, ranking 91st in offensive success rate and 61st in net points per drive. Arkansas, despite a poor overall record and an eight-game losing streak, has a potent offense ranked top-10 in points per quality drive and 11th in net points per drive, led by quarterback Taylen Green.
- Texas holds a favorable edge due to stronger overall record and defensive ranking, though Arkansas has kept recent losses close, including four of five losses decided by three points or less.
- No specific injury reports provided in available data, but Texas coming off a 35-10 loss last week could indicate some offensive struggles.
- Texas plays at home with a supportive crowd in Austinโs DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Arkansas faces travel and momentum challenges coming off a tough stretch of losses.
- Texas aims to rebound from a recent heavy defeat and solidify playoff positioning. Arkansas looks to break its losing streak and prove competitive against a top team, making them a motivated underdog.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks: +270, Texas Longhorns: -340 | Texas Longhorns | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks: -112 ( +9.5 points ), Texas Longhorns: -108 ( -9.5 points ) | Arkansas Razorbacks +9.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: -102 (58.5 points), Under: -118 (58.5 points) | Under 58.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 58.5 11% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 58.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas Longhorns win, but Arkansas covers the spread due to their efficient offense and Texasโ offensive inconsistency.
Predicted Score: Texas Longhorns 27 – 19 Arkansas Razorbacks