Match Analysis: Tennessee Volunteers vs New Mexico State Aggies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 9:15 PM UTC
- Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
Game Overview
The Tennessee Volunteers (6-3) host the New Mexico State Aggies (3-6) at Neyland Stadium. Tennessee is a heavy favorite with a massive spread and a moderately high total set for scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tennessee has a strong offense averaging 43.6 points per game (4th nationally) and a robust defense allowing just 31.1 points. New Mexico State struggles offensively (21.3 PPG) and defensively (25.2 PPG allowed), with an overall weaker record and lower rankings.
- Historical data favors Tennessee heavily, and Tennessee has consistently covered large spreads against New Mexico State in past matchups.
- No significant injuries reported for key Tennessee players; New Mexico State's roster health shows no impactful absences, but depth is a concern.
- The game is at Tennesseeβs home stadium under favorable weather conditions (67Β°F, no rain, low wind), supporting Tennesseeβs high-powered offense.
- Tennessee is motivated to maintain a strong SEC showing and secure bowl eligibility. New Mexico State is underdogs with limited motivation after a tough season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee -2500 / New Mexico State +1200 | Tennessee | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Tennessee -39.5 (-112) / New Mexico State +39.5 (-108) | Tennessee -39.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over 61.5 (-112) / Under 61.5 (-108) | Under 61.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 61.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 61.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tennessee Volunteers to win outright and cover the heavy spread; the total points scored will go under 61.5.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 45 – New Mexico State 10