Match Analysis: TCU Horned Frogs vs Iowa State Cyclones – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium
Game Overview
TCU Horned Frogs host Iowa State Cyclones in a Big 12 Conference matchup. TCU enters the game with a 6-2 record and strong recent form, while Iowa State has lost four straight after a 5-0 start, falling to 5-4. The series is historically close, but TCU is favored at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- TCU is 6-2 overall and 3-2 in conference, coming off a road win over West Virginia. Iowa State is 5-4, 2-4 in Big 12, and has lost four consecutive games, including recent struggles against quality opponents.
- TCU leads the all-time series 9-6, but Iowa State won the most recent meeting 27-14 in 2023. Recent H2H shows Iowa State can compete, but TCU has the edge in momentum and venue.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- TCU is playing at home, where they have a strong record this season. Iowa State is on the road, which may impact their performance given their recent struggles away from home.
- TCU is fighting for a top-tier bowl spot and Big 12 relevance, while Iowa State is trying to avoid a losing season and salvage their campaign.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -265, away: 215 | TCU Horned Frogs | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | home: -7, away: 7 | TCU Horned Frogs -7 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | over: 57.5, under: 57.5 | Over 57.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 57.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 57.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
TCU covers the spread and wins outright, but the game is closer than the line suggests due to Iowa State's ability to compete in H2H matchups.
Predicted Score: 35-28