Match Analysis: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Texas State Bobcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: M.M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Game Overview
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-2) host Texas State Bobcats (3-6) in a Sun Belt Conference matchup. Southern Miss is favored, with strong offensive production and a solid turnover margin, while Texas State struggles defensively and has covered the spread only twice this season. The game features a high total line, reflecting both teams' scoring tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Southern Miss averages 32.3 points per game (52nd nationally) and allows 24.2 (63rd), with a turnover margin of +16 (2nd). Texas State averages 34.7 points (29th) but allows 34.8 (125th), with a turnover margin of -8 (132nd). Southern Miss has covered the spread in 5 of 9 games, while Texas State has covered only twice. Southern Miss has been dominant at home (4-1 ATS), while Texas State struggles on the road.
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup. Both teams are in the Sun Belt, but historical records for this specific pairing are not referenced in current sources.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game will be played at M.M. Roberts Stadium in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, with favorable weather conditions (77ยฐF, 0% rain, light wind). Southern Miss has a strong home-field advantage, averaging 33.0 points per game at home.
- Southern Miss is fighting for a strong conference finish and potential bowl eligibility, while Texas State is out of contention and may lack motivation. Southern Miss has won 4 of its last 5 games, showing momentum, while Texas State has lost 6 of its last 7.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: -175, Texas State Bobcats: +145 | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: -3.5 -112, Texas State Bobcats: +3.5 -108 | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -3.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 65.5 -112, Under: 65.5 -108 | Under 65.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 65.5 1% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 65.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Southern Miss is expected to win comfortably, with a strong defense and turnover advantage. The game is likely to stay under the high total due to Southern Miss's defensive efficiency and Texas State's offensive struggles. Southern Miss should cover the spread, and the under is the best bet for the total.
Predicted Score: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 38, Texas State Bobcats 26