Match Analysis: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Texas State Bobcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: M.M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Game Overview
The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-2) host the Texas State Bobcats (3-6) in a Sun Belt conference matchup. Southern Miss enters with a strong record and defensive edge, while Texas State struggles, especially on defense and getting turnovers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Southern Miss holds a 7-2 record with a solid defense ranking 63rd in points allowed (24.2 per game) and an opportunistic turnover margin (forced 25, allowed 9). Texas State is 3-6, ranking near the bottom defensively (125th in points allowed at 34.8) and has struggled to force turnovers (5 forced, 13 allowed). Southern Miss also has better recent form, winning 4 of the last 5 games.
- Historically, Southern Miss has dominated Texas State, winning their last 11 home games as favorites against Texas teams. Texas State has lost its last four road games and failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive games.
- No major injury reports affecting starters reported for either team, allowing full-strength lineups.
- Weather forecast expects 77Β°F and clear conditions with no wind or rain, favoring a stable offensive game environment at home advantage for Southern Miss.
- Southern Miss is motivated to maintain momentum late in the season for potential bowl positioning, while Texas State's motivation is tempered by a losing record and underdog status.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southern Miss -175, Texas State +145 | Southern Miss | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | Southern Miss -3.5 -112, Texas State +3.5 -108 | Southern Miss -3.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 65.5 -112, Under 65.5 -108 | Under 65.5 | β β β ββ 67% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 65.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 65.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles to win straight up, cover the -3.5 spread, and the total points to go under 65.5.
Predicted Score: Southern Miss 31, Texas State 24