Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks Prediction
NCAAF in American Football
Match Analysis: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: M.M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Game Overview
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles host Jacksonville State Gamecocks in a closely matched conference game with both teams holding 2-2 records. Southern Miss is favored by 4 points with a total set at 54.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams are 2-2, but Southern Miss lost their last outing 30-20 to Louisiana Tech, while Jacksonville State won convincingly 45-10 against Murray State, indicating Jacksonville State's recent offensive form is stronger.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but simulations and models give Southern Miss a slight edge with approximately 58% win probability versus Jacksonville State's 42%.
- No prominent injury reports affect key players on either team according to available information.
- Southern Miss benefits from home-field advantage at M.M. Roberts Stadium with favorable weather conditions (~80Β°F, no rain, light wind).
- Jacksonville State, coming off a strong offensive performance, is motivated to upset the home favorites and cover the 4-point spread. Southern Miss has motivation to rebound from their last loss and defend home turf.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -185, away: +154 | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles win | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | home: -110, away: -110 | Jacksonville State +4 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Over 54.5 points | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 54.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 54.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jacksonville State +4 on spread; Moneyline pick Southern Miss; Bet Over 54.5 total points
Predicted Score: Southern Miss 31 – Jacksonville State 28