Match Analysis: South Florida Bulls vs Boise State Broncos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-28
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
This opening week NCAAF matchup pits the South Florida Bulls against the No. 25-ranked Boise State Broncos at Raymond James Stadium. The Bulls face the nation's most challenging start to their schedule, playing three straight Top 25 teams to open their season. Boise State, a Mountain West program with a recent history of playoff contention, visits Tampa looking to assert dominance early. The game is set for prime national exposure on ESPN and holds implications for Group of Five playoff seeding.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Florida enters with a difficult schedule, facing consecutive Top 25 opponents for the first time since 2009, which reflects a test of resilience and quality. Boise State has a solid reputation within their conference and nationally, though they are adjusting to life without key running back Ashton Jeanty. Both teams come in 0-0, making this performance-defining for momentum.
- Current direct head-to-head data for recent years is not provided, but Boise State is ranked No. 25, suggesting comparative strength over South Florida, who is underdog at home.
- Boise State is adjusting to the absence of Ashton Jeanty, their key running back. No serious injury reports are indicated for South Florida.
- The gameโs location at Raymond James Stadium provides home-field advantage to South Florida. However, the travel distance and Thursday night timing could favor Boise State, who are used to competitive road challenges. National TV exposure on ESPN likely adds pressure on both.
- South Florida aims to prove competitiveness against high-ranked opponents on their home turf early in a grueling schedule. Boise State seeks to build on prior playoff appearance success to secure a Group of Five playoff berth, making this season opener valuable.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos: -238, South Florida Bulls: +195 | Boise State Broncos win | โ โ โ โ โ 78% |
| Spread | Boise State Broncos: -6.5 -108, South Florida Bulls: +6.5 -112 | Boise State Broncos -6.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 63.5 -108, Under: 63.5 -112 | Over 63.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 63.5 16% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 63.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boise State Broncos to win by covering the 6.5-point spread in a high-scoring game.
Predicted Score: Boise State Broncos 38, South Florida Bulls 27