Match Analysis: South Alabama Jaguars vs Tulane Green Wave – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
Game Overview
The Tulane Green Wave visit the South Alabama Jaguars in Week 2 of the NCAAF season. Both teams start the season 1-0. Tulane is favored strongly with a 10.5-point spread due to their consistent performance and stronger overall team metrics. South Alabama faces an uphill battle trying to cover the spread playing at home against a superior Tulane squad.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tulane enters the game 1-0, showing effective offensive production with QB Justin Retzlaff throwing for 152 yards and a touchdown, and running back Kevin Bullock rushing for 127 yards and 2 touchdowns in their opening game. South Alabama is also 1-0, with decent offensive stats but less impressive overall production. Tulane's defense is expected to challenge South Alabama's offense significantly.
- Recent seasons favor Tulane with a better winning percentage in matchups against South Alabama; Tulane has covered the spread in every game so far this season while South Alabama has struggled to cover.
- No significant player injuries reported for either side leading into the game.
- The game is played at South Alabama's home stadium, Hancock Whitney Stadium, which could provide a home-field advantage. However, Tulaneโs travel and strong motivation from their opening win mitigate this.
- Tulane aims to maintain their perfect record and justify their strong favorite status. South Alabama looks motivated to defend their home turf and bounce back from recent struggles against Tulane.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars: +310, Tulane Green Wave: -395 | Tulane Green Wave win | โ โ โ โ โ 71% |
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars: +10.5 at -115, Tulane Green Wave: -10.5 at -105 | Tulane Green Wave -10.5 cover | โ โ โ โโ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 50.5: -110, Under 50.5: -110 | Under 50.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 50.5 5% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tulane Green Wave win by a margin exceeding the 10.5-point spread, with a final score projection close to Tulane 35 – South Alabama 32 based on offensive efficiency and trend analyses.
Predicted Score: Tulane Green Wave 35 – South Alabama Jaguars 32