Match Analysis: San Jose State Spartans vs New Mexico Lobos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-04
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California
Game Overview
The Mountain West Conference matchup features San Jose State Spartans (1-3) hosting New Mexico Lobos (3-1). San Jose State is favored by 2.5 points with a total set at 58.5. New Mexico has stronger recent form, winning their last game decisively, while San Jose State narrowly lost their previous contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico Lobos have a better record (3-1) compared to San Jose State (1-3), averaging 30.5 points scored and allowing 21.5 points per game, ranking better on defense. San Jose State scores less (20.3 ppg) and allows more points (28.0 ppg), indicating defensive vulnerabilities and recent struggles.
- New Mexico is 1-6 in the last 7 games against San Jose State, indicating historical dominance by the Spartans in recent matchups. However, current season form favors New Mexico.
- No significant injury reports impacting key players were noted, suggesting both teams are near full strength.
- Game played at San Jose Stateβs home stadium provides a slight advantage for Spartans. Weather and venue conditions are expected to be typical with no adverse effects on gameplay.
- New Mexico enters this game with stronger momentum after a convincing win; San Jose State seeks to recover from a close loss, adding motivation to cover the spread at home.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | San Jose State: -130, New Mexico: +108 | San Jose State | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | San Jose State -2.5: -110, New Mexico +2.5: -110 | San Jose State -2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 58.5: -110, Under 58.5: -110 | Under 58.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 58.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 58.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Jose State to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -2.5 spread, and the total score to go under 58.5 points.
Predicted Score: San Jose State 28 – New Mexico 20