Match Analysis: San Jose State Spartans vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California
Game Overview
San Jose State Spartans (2-5) host Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (6-2) in a matchup featuring two pass-heavy offenses. Hawaii is enjoying one of their best seasons in years, with a three-game win streak, while San Jose State is struggling defensively and coming off two close, tough losses. Both teams are off a bye week, minimizing any travel fatigue for Hawaii. The line is surprising given Hawaii's superior record and San Jose State's defensive woes, but San Jose State has dominated recent head-to-head meetings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Hawaii is 6-2, ranked 14th in passing yards/game, and has won three straight, including a road victory vs Colorado State. San Jose State is 2-5, 7th in passing but 134th in pass defense and 115th in total defense. The Spartans have lost two straight, both close, after two road games at high elevation[1][2][4].
- San Jose State has won 4 of last 5 meetings, including a 35-0 blowout in the previous matchup[3].
- No significant injuries reported in available data; both teams coming off a bye and likely rested.
- Both teams are off a bye, so travel and recovery are not major concerns. No notable weather or off-field issues reported.
- Hawaii is motivated to continue its strong season and make a late push for a bowl game. San Jose State, while struggling, has a recent history of dominating Hawaii and is at home, where they’ve seen recent success[2][3].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose State -120, Hawaii +102 | San Jose State | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | San Jose State -1.5 (-114), Hawaii +1.5 (-106) | San Jose State -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 55.5 (-115), Under 55.5 (-105) | Over 55.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans 14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 55.5 27% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 55.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite Hawaii’s better record and San Jose State’s defensive woes, San Jose State’s home-field advantage and recent H2H dominance tilt the value toward the Spartans at a short spread in a likely high-scoring game.
Predicted Score: San Jose State 34, Hawaii 31
